Denmark's Housing Market Crisis + My 9-Week Trip 🏡🔥🗾


Hello All,

It’s been some time! I’m writing this from Kyoto, Japan. I’m spending three weeks over here, and - while my wife took the kids out - I finally got a bit of time to catch up with writing 🙈

I’ve for you today:

- Housing Situation in Denmark Right Now + Interest Rates Illustration
- My 9-Week Long Round-the-World Holiday

Mind - This is a more “personal”-type update than the usual “practical advice” emails I share. But, hey, hopefully it can be inspiring 😀 - especially for all of you who like my travel-related to content.

🇩🇰 Housing Situation in Denmark

It’s a whole new world.

In Denmark this year alone we’ve seen interest rates go up from 1% to between 5% and 6%. Add in the sky-high electricity prices, 10%+ inflation and it’s more expensive than ever to own a house.

(Plus, that’s before the new massive new taxes are expected to kick in in 2024 for apartments in the big cities…)

So, in this context, if you’re looking for a house or apartment - should you buy now?

Upfront, my take is that you’ve found your dream home - like, the real deal, not a half-hearted one - and plan to live there for the medium to long term, and you’re right now paying a lot in rent, go for it.

But it’s not a good deal. We’re at a crux where owning a place (mortgages, expenses, and soon taxes) have risen a lot while property prices have not yet moved down – or, if they did, it has been just a little bit.

In that context, you’re in a tricky spot: you’ll definitely not get a deal as good as a year ago (or three years ago for that matter). But it’s not a given that you would get a much better deal later on.

Yes, prices could fall - but, how much so? If they fall 20%, maybe you should wait and rent in the meantime. But if they fall e.g. 5%, it will depend on your time horizon. (More on price expectations below.)

Off Topic - I made a whole video entirely in Danish, you can check out here:

For Context - How Interest Rates Impact You

In short, when rates were 1%, it cost 10.000 kr per year to borrow 1m kroner. It’s a bit more nuanced with fees and tax deductions, but that’s roughly the ball-park for borrowing, again, 1m kr.

If the interest rate is 5%, it costs 50.000 kr per year to borrow that one 1m. The same million as before, costs you five times more.

If you need to borrow, say, 4m kr, it went from costing 40.000 kr per year to 200.000 kr. It’s nasty. Especially since you won’t get better anything for all that extra money: it’s money thrown into the garbage.

This means two things:
- You won’t be able to afford the most expensive apartments or houses. It will be more expensive, and thus risky - and banks will be more picky. If before they would borrow you 3m kr, they’ll borrow you less.
- Also, the interest-only loans that I so much liked myself are a lot less interesting. The moment you pay 200.000 kr in interest per year and not just 50.000 kr the game is different, right?

This, obviously, has had - or will soon have - an impact in prices:

  • According to Boligsiden from September to October, house prices fell by 1.6%, apartment prices fell by 2%. In the capital region prices are down 4% since last year.
  • Sales themselves are crashing down. There are less sales happening, AND less properties up for sale. You need to remember that, if someone has a 1% mortgage in their house, they might not be too keen to move out to another place and pay 5%. I would be wary of moving myself, for instance.
  • Experts say prices will fall 7-10% in Denmark through end of next year, and up to 15% in Copenhagen. BUT remember, these are the same experts who said that we would see a major crash in 2020 and 2021, and then prices went up 30%. But I would expect prices to keep falling as well.

🚨Question! I've an idea to make two live (4-week-ish) courses, loosely on a) Productivity as a Creator (e.g. the systems I use to publish weekly YouTube videos, courses, etc. despite a full-time job, travel and two kids - the whole "frictionless" approach), and b) Building an Online Business Part-Time (which is what I've been doing for 10+ years in multiple forms, but with all the basics and advanced techniques explained).

If you're interested, please "vote" by clicking here:
- Productivity as a Creator
- Building an Online Business Part Time

I have not built anything yet and the links just point to my YouTube channel. But the clicks give me feedback on how much interest there is for this 😅. If you're interested in both just click both links.

Thanks ❤️

✈️ BIG Travel Plans

I write this, as I noted above, from Japan. I’m on the third week of a nine week paternity leave.

I’m off exploring the world with my wife and the two boys, and started here in Japan. We’ve been doing an intense loop from Hokkaido down through the Japanese Alps to Tokyo and Kyoto, and included a lot of firsts for me.

We’re almost done here, only missing a few days and a (very exciting, for me at least!) visit to Mt. Koya close to Osaka and Kyoto.

Just a few notes:

- Japan is CHEAP now. It’s insanely good value - it’s cheaper than any country in Western/Central Europe and it’s the same good quality everything that you would expect from Japan. We’ve “splurged” without breaking the budget. If you’ve ever planned to visit Japan, now it’s the PERFECT time. (I can’t stress it enough 😀).
- I’m surprised by how much of my Japanese I could revive in just a few weeks with Duolingo. (I used to be quite good in Japanese). While I don’t think Duolingo is good for first-time learners (or, better said, “fast and effective” for first-time learners) it did help me get back up to speed quickly and it’s just a very frictionless-way of studying.
- I’ll be doing some reflections on Japan Travel for YouTube soon. I’ve been posting some pictures and stories in Instagram for a change.

Next week we’re back to Denmark for a few days, then visit my wife’s family Estonia for another few, and then we head off to the Americas. We’ll take a cruise starting from Panama and up the west coast of Central America and up to San Diego. Last we’ll drive the US South West for a bit less than two weeks and finish the trip off relaxing in Punta Cana.

BTW - It's crazy how much harder it is to travel with two vs. just one kid. We still did A LOT of stuff, but having two definitely is more than 1 + 1.

Side Note - We’re visiting ten countries during the trip, and - bummer for me - *ZERO new ones. I’m still stuck at 136, but I’ll still get some new points in the travel map 🗺️.

⚡️ Coming Up Next

I aim to continue publishing YouTube videos weekly through the travel period. Just expect it a bit more rough.

I’ll also repeat my Annual Review Workshop (when we get there, in December or early January). It was fun last time (but with a very small group!) and this time I want to make it a one-day thing only.

I'm also working on a winter update for the Investing in Denmark Course as well. I hope I can send it through before the end of the year.

Excuse me for taking this long to write again. It has been a bit of a tough autumn, but I’m super excited for what’s coming 😀.

Thank you for reading, and I would love if you reach out with feedback or anything on this email.

Jaa na,

Mario

Mario Scian

I help people in Europe to buy a house, invest in stocks and build an online side business. I also write on productivity and my travels to 140+ countries.

Read more from Mario Scian

Hey Friends, Today, I want to share: - 🏡 (Short) Update - Real Estate in Denmark (Surprising)- 🍀 How to Get Lucky & Inevitability Thinking - 🐻❄️ Update from My Trip to Svalbard 🎥 New on YouTube I’ve been posting roughly every two weeks on YouTube, and these are the most popular videos: On Danish Habits: On Pensions in Denmark: Aside - I’m (leisurely) looking for a bigger apartment or house, and I’ve been surprised by how “hot” the housing market in Denmark is. It’s not like during COVID, and...

Hey All, I increasingly see that the connecting thread of everything I’ve been writing and making videos about is financial independence. Whether you’re looking to buy a house, to start investing, or to build a business, it all circles back to the ambition many of us have of being financially free. Today, I want to deep dive on financial independence, and share what financial freedom means to me in practice. BUT First - We’ve reached 10.000 subscribers on YouTube 🎉! It only took… 4 years? 😂...

Hello All, This time, I want to share: - Latest on YouTube incl. Investing & Denmark Real Estate - My Biggest Productivity Takes for 2024 - Saving an Hour a Day - Two Challenges!- My Country #140 Unveil (lol) 🎥 Latest Videos on YouTube Denmark Lowers Income Taxes: The Best Investing Plan for 2024 I’ve a lot more videos filmed (and to be filmed) and kept committed to (sooner or later) publish two videos a week consistently 💪. 🇩🇰 Also in Denmark - Mortgage Rates are starting to fall,...